UFC 253 comes packed with fireworks from both inside the octagon and the betting lines as middleweight king Israel Adesanya settles his grudge with the unbeaten destroyer, Paulo Costa.
Both fighters are explosive strikers and with ill will all but guaranteeing heated exchanges. Co-headlining are red-hot fighters Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz facing off for the vacant light heavyweight title.
Let's break down these fights and see which bets we can cash.
UFC 253 betting stats
- Adesanya opened at 1.71 and has been bet down to 1.61
- Costa opened at 2.20 and has been bet up to 2.36
- Adesanya to win by finish is expected by 49% of the betting public
- Blachowicz is 5-1 in his last six fights when opening as an underdog
- Matthews opened at 1.22, the lowest he's ever opened in his UFC career
UFC 253: why Adesanya wins this fight
What happens when a fighter jet fights a tank? That's the kind of matchup we have right here. Israel Adesanya, the fighter jet, is fast, agile, and packs plenty of power in the form of many packages. Paulo Costa, the tank, is compact and powerful although not as mobile.
Adesanya is a Muay Thai fighter who can pick Costa apart on their feet. He is also long with an 80" reach, tied for second-longest in the UFC just behind Jon Jones. This will prove useful against Costa, who only has a 72" reach and does most of his damage at short range.
Known as the "Last Stylebender", Adesanya's cartoon-inspired nickname lends to both how fluid and creative he is. He is hard to predict and can throw a variety of strikes from his fists to his elbows to his feet. Both on his feet and on the clinch, he can deal serious damage.
Costa, known as "The Eraser", moves forward and knocks the other fighter out. But he's far from being a two-bit slugger. "Borrachinha" is more technical in his boxing. He operates on plenty of feints and can hit with ease from multiple angles. He also holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
If this was fought in a pocket, Costa would win. But Adesanya would be a constantly moving target who will counter-strike at every chance. Adesanya can win this fight comfortably by utilizing the jab. If Costa went for leg kicks, Adesanya would switch stances and approach from a different angle.
There is no one way to fight Adesanya. As smart and powerful as Costa is, Adesanya will grow stronger each round as he toys and frustrates the brazen challenger.
Adesanya should win this via a judges' decision and retain his UFC middleweight title.
UFC 253: best bets on underdogs, props, and parlays
Best underdog bet: Jan Blachowicz at 3.00
In the co-main event lies our best underdog bet. Jan Blachowicz has been a money train as a dog having cashed on five of his last six bouts as an underdog. The Polish standout has become a knockout artist and has a wealth of experience fighting legitimate strikers including kickboxers.
Reyes may be younger and spryer with a more diverse arsenal, but Blachowicz won't back down and will push the action here. While Reyes is the more likely winner, a payout of 3-1 on Blachowicz is too good to pass up. Bet on Blachowicz to come through yet again.
Best prop bet: Adesanya and Costa fight goes to decision at 3.45
Conventional wisdom dictates this fight will not see the judges' scorecards, but the last Adesanya fight felt similar and was even lined at 1.63 to end in a finish (infamously, it did not). As a champion, Adesanya will be more defensive and take fewer risks.
While Costa will keep coming forward and pressing the action, he'll have little success "catching" Adesanya. And even if he hurts Adesanya, the champ has incredible durability and can weather the storm. Save some change and put it on this.
Best parlay bet: Claudia Gadelha (2.15) and Brandon Royval (2.70) to win at 5.81
Outside of "lottery" plays, we normally won't recommend a parlay bet made of underdogs. But the betting lines are a bit off with both these fighters.
Gadelha is being underwritten here against the streaking Yan Xiaonan (5-0 in UFC). She's still a formidable top-5 fighter and can wrestle, something Yan has shown weakness too. The former title challenger can grind Yan to a decision.
In men's flyweight, submission expert Royval can make short work of the one-dimensional Kai-Kara France. The smaller cage will allow Royval to more easily grab France and avoid being picked apart from range (which France doesn't even have much of). Royval should win this by submission.
Parlay both fighters for a payout of almost 6-1!
Where to bet UFC 253 and the best MMA odds
Whether you agree with our picks or want to fade us (as if we blew the UFC 252 picks), you can do so by signing up with the top online sportsbooks. Our partner table should provide the basic details such as what your bonus offers are plus a quick link to unbiased comprehensive reviews.
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Category : Online Betting News
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